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Prediction for CME (2024-06-25T13:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-25T13:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31700/-1
CME Note: The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. Around 2024-06-29T03:30Z, a small bump in density is observed, followed by an enhancement in temperature at 2024-06-29T07:30Z. Further analysis of this event may be of interest to the research community. A CME seen to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. The leading edge is unclear. Source is opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193 and an M1.0 flare from Active Region 13723 peaking at 2024-06-25T12:45Z best seen in SDO AIA 131.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-29T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31702/1
Model Inputs:
2024-06-25T13:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-65.0, Lat.=-27.0, Speed=392.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2024-06-25T22:33Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-06-29T05:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-01T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240625_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 78.48 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-06-25T22:31Z

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